Boris Johnson’s decision to blow off the Northern Research Group for a secret visit to Kiev is the latest sign that we’re probably in the autumn of his premiership.
It is, after all, fairly common for prime ministers facing trouble at home to become gradually more enamoured with the world stage, where they get to play the statesman rather than get shouted at by disgruntled backbenchers.
Much more pleasant to be the hero of the hour, whether that’s taking a lead in assisting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion or, in Gordon Brown’s case, ‘saving the world’, or at least the global financial system.
The official line from the Defence Secretary is that the trip needed to be secret because “Russia is still launching missile strikes right across Ukriane”, although it stretches belief a little that Moscow – which is trying to dissuade western nations from backing Ukraine – would do something so escalatory as risk killing the Prime Minister.
And indeed the visit itself is perfectly defensible – although the i has a fascinating account of how frequently a call between Johnson and Volodymyr Zelensky coincides with a moment of political difficulty for the former.
But it still seems a little gratuitous to cancel on the NRG with no notice. Surely some other pressing diary commitment could have been invented instead?
Regardless of the justification, the response from MPs tells its own story. Whilst Ben Wallace insists that as a northern MP he isn’t offended and Johnson’s non-attendance at the conference can be made up, other attendees sound absolutely furious. A few more enemies made, a little more ground lost.
It won’t tip the balance, on its own. But it is another sign that the party is drifting back towards the factionalism that broke out under Theresa May. The European Research Group’s decision to reform their ‘Star Chamber’ to review the Government’s plans for the Protocol is another.
Johnson’s problem is that whereas Brown at least could expect to be fêted in any number of nations, with the right crowd, there are only so many times one can make an urgent visit to the Ukraine. At some point, if he wants to make a long-term prospect of his premiership, he is going to have to do the long and often tedious work of building trust with his parliamentary colleagues.
He has never shown much inclination to do this, and it is late in the day to learn the skill.