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Back in December, our editor looked at how the views of our panel on the likely outcome of the next general election had evolved during 2021.

At the time of the November survey, the combined total expecting some sort of Conservative victory – either an overall majority, a minority government, or a Tory-led coalition – stood at 78 per cent.

Today, it stands at just under 61 per cent: 45 per cent expect a majority, 12 per cent a minority government, and just 3.47 per cent a coalition headed by the Conservatives (perhaps reflecting a dearth of potential coalition partners).

When we last looked at this question, every month of 2021 up to November had that total up in the 80s or 90s, so this shows a clear slip in grassroots confidence – although perhaps not as large a one as might have been expected.

Here are the full figures for all the surveys since our December post:

  • April: 61 per cent
  • March: 72 per cent
  • February: 72 per cent
  • January: 66 per cent
  • December: 67 per cent

Most of the volatility is in the score for those expecting a majority government. The shares for a minority government or a Tory-led coalition are fairly stable at 10-13 per cent and 3-5 per cent respectively.