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Here is the latest monthly survey finding on general election expectations.

Seventy eight per cent of panel members currently expect a Conservative-led government to take office after it is held.

Fifty-nine per cent expect an outright win; 14 per cent a minority Tory Government, and five per cent a Conservative-led coalition.

The figures for the year to date are as follows:

  • October: 85 per cent.
  • September: 83 per cent.
  • August: 86 per cent.
  • July: 86 per cent.
  • June: 91 per cent.
  • May: 91 per cent.
  • April: 87 per cent.
  • March: 90 per cent.
  • February: 87 per cent.
  • January: 83 per cent.