Published:

10.30am

Monday May 10

  • Share of the vote in the local elections: Conservatives 36 per cent (plus eight points on the 2019 local elections), Labour 29 per cent (plus one), Others 18 per cent (minus seven points), Liberal Democrats 17 per cent (minus two points).
  • Sixteen Conservative council gains: Basildon, Cannock Chase, Cornwall, Dudley, Gloucester, Maidstone, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Pendle, Southampton, Welwyn Hatfield and Worcester, all from No Overall Control. And Amber Valley, Harlow and Southampton from Labour.
  • Four Conservative losses: South Cambridgeshire, the Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, and Tunbridge Wells. All to No Overall Control.
  • Eight Labour council losses: Amber Valley, Durham, Harlow, Plymouth, Rossendale, Southampton, Sheffield and West Lancashire.  To No Overall Control – bar Amber Valley, Harlow and Southampton.
  • One LibDem council gain: St Albans, from No Overall Control.
  • Labour gain three mayoralties: The West of England and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough, from the Conservatives. And the new West Yorkshire mayoralty.

 

13.30

  • All but two seats in Amber Valley have gone Conservative, in a straight control swap from Labour.  The council was on Harry Phibbs’ list of Tory targets, as was Basildon, Cannock Chase, Cornwall, Dudley, Gloucester and Walsall.
  • Labour is performing well in the city mayoralties: in addition to its win in Bristol, which was expected, it looks as though Tracey Brabin, in West Yorkshire, is set to win.  The last was also on Harry’s target list.  Labour has won ten of the twelve mayoral contests, winning the West of England and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough from the Conservatives.
  • The LibDems take St Albans from No Overall Control. Mole Valley, which was also on Harry’s Conservative target list, stays held LibDem.
  • Stroud and Milton Keynes were on Harry’s list too, but remain under No Overall Control.John Curtice writes that the projected vote shares for the main parties are as follows: Conservatives 36 per cent, Labour 29 per cent, Others 18 per cent, LibDems 17 per cent.  “The projected Conservative lead of seven points is similar to the average Conservative lead of six points in the most recent Britain-wide polls.”
  • Finally for the moment, it’s worth following Election Maps on Twitter, which is painting a gradual picture of what the results look like at a local level.
  • At random, pretty much, we pick out its illustration of what’s happened in Woking to give a sense of the bigger picture.  Very broadly, this seems to be: significant Conservative council seat gains in the Midlands and North-East, a more mixed picture in the North-West, and smaller seat wins for Labour or the Libdems across the South.

9am Sunday May 9

  • The Conservatives have gained Southampton, Basildon and Welwyn Hatfield from No Overall Control, while Labour has lost its majority on Durham Council, for the first time in 100 years, to No Overall Control – and Rossendale to No Overall Control.
  • Khan won 55 per cent of the vote in the final round (one per cent down on his 2016 total), and Bailey 45 per cent (one per cent up on Zac Goldsmith’s) – a better result for the latter than most expected. Could Bailey have won with more push behind him from the party nationally?  Would another candidate have made the difference?  Or is the result more about a lack of enthusiasm for Khan than anything else?  No London Assembly constituency seat has changed hands.
  • Labour has held the Bristol mayoralty with the Greens second.
  • Harry Phibbs points out on Twitter that “on Monday I suggested that reasonable Conservative targets would be to gain Cheshire, Derbyshire, and Leicestershire Police and Crime Commissioners from Labour. All three have been achieved”.

20.00

  • Khan leads Bailey by 76,403 to 59,460 in Merton and Wandsworth on the first ballot; and by 67,610 to 65,822 in Barnet and Camden.  These are better areas for the Conservatives than the other London ones that have declared since this morning.  Khan is set to win.  No London Assembly seat to date has changed hands.
  • Having declared that he will take “full responsibility” for these results, Keir Starmer has decided instead to foist responsibility on Angela Rayner – who he has now sacked as Labour’s Chairman, despite not being able to sack her as his deputy (she was separately elected, and so has her own mandate).  Eric Pickles laconic tweet above is a pithy take on Starmer’s decision.
  • His move will drown out a Labour success story.  In Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Nick Johnson pipped James Palmer to the post on the second ballot – winning 113,994 votes (52 per cent to the incumbent’s 108,195 votes (49 per cent).  It’s an interesting case of LibDem voters splitting left, marginally, rather than right: the Remain-flavoured Cambridge Effect seen also in the South Cambridgeshire poll.

18.00

  • Street has won: he had 314,669 votes in the final round, and Byrne took 267,626.  That’s 54 per cent of the vote, compared to 50 per cent last time.
  • The Conservatives’ Caroline Henry has won Nottinghamshire’s Police and Crime Commissioner election, taking the post from Labour’s Paddy Tipping…
  • …As has Rupert Matthews in Leicestershire, defeating Labour’s Ross Wilmot.
  • …and the BBC is reporting that the Party has gained Gloucester from No Overall Control.
  • …But, over at the West of England mayoraly, Labour’s Dan Norris has gained the post from the Conservatives.  He took 84,484 votes (33 per cent); Samuel Williams, the new Tory candidate, won 72,415 votes (29 per cent).  Third place saw another success for the Greens, who pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth.  Their candidate, Jerome Thomas, won 54,919 votes (22 per cent) to Stephen Williams’ 41,193 (16 per cent).  The city of Bristol was voting in its own elections, which will have helped Labour.
  • Andy Burnham is back as Mayor of Greater Manchester with 67 per cent of the vote, and has celebrated with what sounded like another Labour leadership pitch: “I heard people from the left saying it was all about the policies. It’s more fundamental: the party’s lost an emotional connection with people…it has deep roots, it goes back to the early 2000s…in the distant future, if the party were to need me, they should get in touch”.
  • And finally in this section…Jiyun Park had a go in Bury, and so has Timothy Cho, another refugee from North Korea, in Denton South, Tameside, Greater Manchester. Like Park, he was imprisoned and tortured: read the Sun‘s harrowing account of his experience.

15.30

  • As previously, the evidence piles up that Andy Street is going to win.  His first round majority in Walsall is up by more than 8,000 first preference votes; in Wolverhampton, he lost last by over 4,000; but has won this time by more than 3,000; in Coventry, Byrne won by only a thousand, but Labour was ahead by 4,000 or so last time; in Sandwell, Labour polled nearly 15,000 votes more than Street. in 2017, nowm less than 6,000
  • James Palmer, the Conservative Mayor of Cambridgeshire, won 41 per cent on the first ballot. Nik Johnson, the Labour candidate, has 33 per cent. Aidan de Weyer, the Liberal Democrat, got 28 per cent.  Palmer is expected to make it on transfers.
  • The BBC reports that the Conservatives have won Worcester from No Overall Control…
  • …But have lose the Isle of Wight to No Overall Control.
  • Meanwhile, Sam Freeman suggests that the London Effect, as he doesn’t quite call it, is working against the Conservatives in their southern Blue Wall (as he doesn’t quite call it either). “Tories lost 14 seats in Surrey; 8 in West Sussex; lost Isle of Wight to NOC; lost Canterbury. The London outflow votes are starting to have a real impact.”
  • John Rentoul, in fine contrarian form, says these elections, so far, aren’t all that bad for Labour. “Professor Sir John Curtice, the one-person national institution, has calculated that the English local elections would have translated into a Conservative lead in a vote across Great Britain of 6 to 7 percentage points. In other words, closing the 12-point lead at the general election by about half. When the BBC put these numbers into its House of Commons model, it suggested that Johnson’s 80-seat majority would be all but wiped out.”

14.30

  • Andy Street is indeed well set in the West Midlands – losing in Birmingham by less than 20,000 to Labour’s Liam Byrne (102,276 to 84, 817).
  • At the District Council level, the Conservatives have gained Worcester.
  • Some questionable reporting from the BBC: it says that the Conservatives have held Tunbridge Wells, but Times Local News says that they have lost control.  It marks Pendle as a Conservative gain, but on its  figures, the council previously had a Tory majority of one.
  • More Police Commissioner results tomorrow, but Mark Shelford, the Conservative candidate, has won Avon and Somerset.
  • Same story everywhere: Conservatives up outside the Greater South East: in Wakefield, say, from six to eight.  And down or static within it: so no movement, for example, in Reading.

13.30

  • The Conservatives have gained Cannock from No Overall Control.  The BBC is reporting that the same has taken place in Pendle.
  • The Labour mayoralty wins are beginning to come in: Steve Rotherham in Liverpool City Region, North Tyneside and Doncaster.

 

12.30

  • In Havering and Redbridge, Bailey leads Khan by an emphatic 82,361 to 49,818; and in Bexley and Bromley by 100,630 to 44,350. In Brent and Harrow, won by Labour with a margin of over 20,000 in the Assembly election, Bailey is ahead by 65,566 to 61,778.  In Ealing and Hillingdon, Bailey leads Khan by 79,863 to 74854: Labour won the Assembly seat by some 10,00 votes.
  • But these are just the first ballot results, and they include the most blue Conservative areas.  As before, we think that Khan is well placed to win, but that Bailey has done better than most predicted.
  • On the sunny side for the Conservatives elsewhere, they have won 15 seats in Rotherham, having previously held none at all; on the rainier one, they are down four seats in Trafford and Labour are up four, comfortably retaining their hold on the council.  This looks very much like another replication of Leave-flavoured and Remain-flavoured areas going different ways.
  • The BBC is reporting that the Conservatives have gained control of Maidstone, where they now have one more councillor than the LibDems.
  • Dan Hodges tweets: “Something not mentioned. These results are also a complete repudiation of the Lockdown Deniers. They told us “real people” were on the point of rebellion over lockdown. They’re not. They’re backing the politicians who implemented it.”  This looks bang on: we will see later whether Laurence Fox, in London, can get above low single figures.

11.00 Saturday May 8

Paul Goodman reporting

  • The Conservatives have gained Cornwall – one of the Tory targets on Harry Phibbs’ list from Monday.
  • Every London Assembly seat so far has been retained by the sitting party: the Conservatives’ Tony Devenish has held West Central, as we reported yesterday; Peter Fortune has won Bexley and Bromley; and Keith Prince is back in Havering and Redbridge. On the Labour side, they have held Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent & Harrow, and Lambeth and Southwark – where the Greens come in second.
  • We repeat that although Shaun Bailey is doing better than many expected, and Sadiq Khan is now unlikely to win on the first ballot, we don’t expect the London mayoralty to go blue.
  • Labour have lost control of Plymouth to No Overall Control. The Conservatives are up six seats and, at 25, now have one more than Labour.  “Stonking results in Plymouth,” tweets Johnny Mercer. “From never having had a Conservative MP in this constituency 5 years ago, to a clean sweep at the local elections today. Amazing. I could not be prouder of a brilliant team.”
  • Finally, Jiyun Park didn’t gain Moorside in Bury, but tweets: “I didn’t win the election but personally in my heart think that this was a really great experience and I learnt again what democratic life is and why political freedom is important to us. Life is a journey and the road not always be as smooth. I never give up on my destinations.”

19.00

  • “Labour has lost touch with ordinary British people. A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party. “They mean well, of course, but their politics – obsessed with identity, division and even tech utopianism – have more in common with those of Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday.” That’s Khalid Mahmood on today’s results.  The Labour Shadow Defence Minister has resigned from the party’s front bench.  He says Andy Street will win the West Midlands mayoralty.
  • But there is more to his quitting than meets the eye.  Mahmood tweets that he left Labour’s front bench on April 13 – because “being the first English Muslim MP in Parliament I want to concentrate on the issues of fighting manipulation of young Muslims by Extremist so called Muslim Organisations”.
  • The Birmingham MP has a long record of fighting extremism, authoring several reports for Policy Exchange, who Keir Starmer barred him from working with.  Guess where that article denouncing his party’s drift is carried?  On the think-tank’s blog.  So it’s two fingers from Mahmood to his leader – and we can surely now expect to see him engaged with Policy Exchange’s “Understanding Islam” project.
  • Elsewhere, Festus Akinbusoye, a frequent contributor to this site, has won the Bedfordshire Police Commissioner election. We are delighted for him.
  • And in London, good news for Bailey generally, and for Tony Devenish in particular, in West London, where the latter has been re-elected to the London Assembly.

 

17.30

  • If you’re a left-of-centre voter in London, you might well think Sadiq Khan is going to win, and not vote.  Or you might think, as is indeed the case, that he delivers little bar publicity – and that the city is getting less safe.  So turnout could conceivably deliver a surprise.  But even if Shaun Bailey does much better than expected, as we hope, it’s hard to see Khan not winning off transfers, if not on the first ballot.
  • ConHome is told that Conservative gains in Sandwell, where they take nine seats off a formerly all-Labour council, and in Wolverhampton, plus the Dudley win, mean that the West Midlands mayoral result looks good for Andy Street.
  • Labour has been holding in some of its biggest urban areas – and has done so in Liverpool, with Joanne Anderson, who replaced Joe Anderson as the party’s mayoral candidate after the latter’s arrest in a corruption probe, being taken to a second ballot by an independent, Stephen Yip.
  • Nonetheless, it has lost its majority in Sheffield, where it now has 41 councillors, down eight; the Liberal Democrats have nine, up three; the Greens six, up five…and the Conservatives one, having previously has none at all

16.30

  • When Ben Houchen won the Teesside mayoralty for the first time in 2017, the BBC correctly described the result as “sensational” – in a then steadfast Labour area, he squeezed in by just over 2000 votes on the final ballot, with 40 per cent of the share in the first round. The turnout was 21 per cent.
  • This time round, his majority is a stonking 76,323 – 73 per cent of the vote.  And there’s no need for a second ballot this time.
  • Look at those figures, for heaven’s sake. Houchen won 17,748 in Middlesbrough to Sue Jeffrey of Labour’s 8141.  In Middlesbrough.
  • There’s undoubtedly a Brexit effect in the strongly pro-Leave North-East as a whole.  But Houchen’s achievement is also the result of hard work, delivering on his manifesto by taking Durham Tees Valley airport into public ownership, getting the South Tees Development Corporation going, and gaining a local freeport.  At the heart of his stupendous win is doing what he said he’s do.
  • It’s worth noting, however, that although turnout was up, it’s only reached 34 per cent.  Nonetheless, enough local voters looked at Houchen last time round, decided to suck it and see – and have decided they like it.  The Conservatives now have four of the six Teesside seats, and Labour’s majority in Stockton North is only just over a thousand.

 

15.30pm

Paul Goodman reporting

  • It is still very early days in these elections, but a pattern is emerging.
  • The Conservatives have gained Dudley from Harry Phibbs’ target list, and also taken Northumberland, Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth – and now Nottinghamshire, as Mark Wallace expected.
  • We’re concentrating on councils that change hands in this blog, but what’s happened to those above is happening on a smaller scale elsewhere. Harry Phibbs reported elsewhere about the Conservatives gaining a seat in South Tyneside.  The patten is repeating itself elsewhere, with the Party up six seats to a total of 29 in Thurrock; four seats to a total of eight in Oldham: five seats to 15 in Wolverhampton.  In Derbyshire, the Conservatives have advanced, winning 45 of the 64 seats, while Labour have retreated, winning only 14.
  • There is less good news for the Tories elsewhere.  They have failed to capture Colchester from Harry’s list, haven’t won the West Yorkshire mayoralty from it either, and lost South Cambridgeshire to No Overall Control, with the LibDems gaining five seats.
  • The thumping Conservative win in the Cleveland Crime Commissioner election suggests that Ben Houchen will be re-elected in Teesside by a landslide; the flavour of the West Midlands results so far means that Andy Street will fare similarly – and that, will the Hartlepool by-election in the bag, Boris Johnson is set to achieve his main electoral aims in England in this poll.
  • These are early days for analysis, but Sam Coates of Sky, among others, tweets that the Tories are hoovering up the Brexit Party vote from 2019.  Meanwhile, the left-of-centre vote is dividing between three parties – Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens – as the right-of-centre vote unites behind one.
  • Diane Abbott, Clive Lewis, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Len McCluskey: all are piling in on Starmer, as Labour, like many other parties of the mainstream left in Europe, drifts.


14.30pm

Charlotte Gill reporting

  • Dominic Cummings pens a series of tweets about the election result, accusing Starmer of being “a beta-lawyer-gamma-politician” who “obsesses on Media Reality not Actual Reality”. More here.
  • “Keir Starmer will have to answer some very tough questions about why we are where we are”, says Clive Lewis, Labour MP for Norwich South.
  • In Derbyshire Count Council, Edwina Currie loses her bid to rejoin the political world. At Whaley Bridge, Ruth George retains her lead with a 700-vote margin: Currie Jones – CON – 1,878 George – LAB – 2,544 Jones – GRE – 138 Lomax – LD – 340
  • British politics used to be about class. It is now about social conservatives versus social liberals. Discuss”, Tweets Ben Page, Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI.
  • NursingNotes reports, from a survey of 1,843 healthcare workers, that 42 per cent intended to vote Conservative in yesterday’s local elections.

13.30pm

  • Steve Turner, the Conservative candidate for Police and Crime Commissioner in Cleveland has been elected on the first round. 74,023 votes to Turner, the Labour candidate got 39,467 votes. Last time Labour beat the Conservatives easily – 41,337 to 18,196. I had not included this as a Conservative target. Another astonishing result.
  • Len McCluskey, the General Secretary of Unite, says of Sir Starmer: “Keir was elected a year ago and there should be no calls for his resignation, he has to be given time, but he needs to learn lessons”.
  • Tiger Patel has gained Audley & Queen’s Park in Blackburn with Darwen from Labour for the Conservatives. You can see his campaign video above.
  • Nottinghamshire is a key Labour target among the county council elections. But so far they have lost seats. More results to come.

12.30pm

  • A lull waiting for more results to be counted. But an encouraging tweet for the Party, from Lee Rowley, about North East Derbyshire.
  • It’s not all good news. Britain Elects reports the Conservatives have lost a seat in Cornwall to Labour and another in Cambridgeshire to the Lib Dems.

11.30am

  • The above tweet calculates that if the Sunderland Council votes were reflected at a General Election then the Conservatives would gain the Sunderland Central constituency.
  • The Conservatives have gained a seat on South Tyneside Council where previously they did not have any councillors at all.
  • There is still zero representation in Gateshead and Newcastle. But it is hoped that seats may be gained in other authorities – such as Sandwell – where there have been no Conservative councillors for many years.
  • The Conservative gains in Oldham included two wards where in 2016 they received under ten per cent of the vote. Medlock Vale (4.5 per cent in 2016) and St James (7.6 per cent.)
  • Though the Conservatives gaining Dudley was an obvious target the extent of the victory was emphatic. Of the seats up for election, the Conservatives won 23, Labour only three. A good sign for Andy Street in the Mayoral election.

 

10.30am

  • One missed Conservative target is Colchester. The Conservatives had no change in their number of councillors – so remain the largest party but the Council is under no overall control.
  • In 2016 the result for Mayor of London saw Sadiq Khan defeat Zac Goldsmith by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. The pundits have been expecting a Khan victory by a wider margin this time – as London moves in the opposite direction politically to the rest of the country. If Khan wins by a narrower margin that will give Conservatives some modest comfort.
  • No breakthrough for the Green Party yet. But some quiet progress – for instance picking up a seat in Stockport.
  • “Crushing defeat for Labour in Hartlepool,” tweets Diane Abbott. “Not possible to blame Jeremy Corbyn for this result. Labour won the seat twice under his leadership. Keir Starmer must think again about his strategy.”

9.30am

Harry Phibbs reporting

  • No calls yet from Labour MPs for Sir Keir Starmer to resign. But the above tweet, from Lloyd Russell-Moyle is a reminder that there are Corbynista MPs keen to criticise. By contrast, others – such as Lord Mandelson – have taken to the airwaves demanding a return yo the New Labour approach.
  • Ros Jones has been re-elected as Mayor of Doncaster. But she relied on second preferences. In 2017, she won on the first round with 51 per cent. Labour did very badly in the 2017 local elections so any further reverses for then are pretty dire for them. The 2016 local elections were more even – so losses for them in contests that last took place then are less dramatic.
  • Already the Conservatives have gained control of councils that I had not included on my list of targets for them since they seemed beyond reach – such as Harlow and Nuneaton & Bedworth. This is especially impressive when only a third of seats are being contested.
  • There have been reports of low turnout in London – even with increased postal vote applications. It had been expected that Sadiq Khan would have an increased majority as Mayor of London. But there is now some uncertainty. Andrew Rosindell tweeted that there was a good turnout in Romford.
  • Early results do show that Labour remains a powerful municipal force. They have held Newcastle, Gateshead, Rochdale and South Tyneside with big majorities. They also have held on in Sunderland and Oldham – but with significant losses.

8.30am

Paul Goodman reporting:

  • Jill Mortimer [pictured right], the Conservative candidate, won 15,529 votes, and Paul Williams, the Labour one, gained 8,589.  That’s 51 per cent of the vote, a majority of almost 7000, and almost twice Labour’s vote – and a swing of 16 per cent.  It’s the biggest percentage increase in a governing party’s by-election vote share since the war.  The turnout was a very considerable 58 per cent.
  • Labour held the seat by a majority of 3,595 over the Tories in 2019, and the party has held the seat since its creation in 1974.
  • Elsewhere, the Conservatives won Northumberland from no overall control, have taken full control in Nuneaton & Bedworth and in Dudley (one of the Tory targets listed by Harry Phibbs earlier this week), and gained every seat up in Redditch.
  • The party has also taken control of Harlow (which will delight its MP, this site’s columnist Robert Halfon), gained.
  • The Tories are up six seats in Sunderland, having eight to Labour’s 15.
  • Newcastle-upon-Tyne didn’t have a single Conservative council seat before yesterday, and still doesn’t: Labour maintains a comfortable majority.
  • But Labour is preparing itself for an ominously poor set of results in England.  A spokesman said: “the message from voters is clear and we have heard it. Labour has not yet changed nearly enough for voters to place their trust in us.
  • The Greens seem poised to do well: gaining two seats from Labour on South Tyneside council, one from the Conservatives in Northumberland, and one from the Liberal Democrats in Colchester.
  • Snapshot summary: the Brexit and vaccine effects are very live; the Left is dividing between three parties and the Right uniting behind one and Labour, like many left-of-centre parties throughout Europe, has long been losing its grip on the working class; now, this is working its way through the system.  No sign yet of any Downing Street wallpaper effect.