Here are the figures for the last twelve months for:
- The percentage expecting a Conservative majority government.
- The percentage expecting a Tory-led coalition.
- The percentage expecting a Conservative led minority.
And then the overall figure for those expecting a Tory led-government of some kind.
- March 2021: 79, 3, 7 – 89 per cent.
- February 2021: 77, 3, 7 – 87 per cent.
- January 2021: 70, 4, 9 – 83 per cent.
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- December 2020: 68, 4, 7 – 79 per cent.
- November 2020: 54, 10, 12 – 76 per cent.
- October 2020: 58, 4, 10 – 72 per cent.
- September 2020: 55, 4, 10 – 69 per cent.
- August 2020: 67, 4, 9 – 80 per cent.
- July 2020: 74, 5, 4 – 83 per cent.
- May 2020: 77, 3 5 – 85 per cent.
- April 2020: 87, 1, 3 – 91 per cent.
- March 2020: 93, 2, 2 – 97 per cent.
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So the proportion expecting a Conservative-led Government has never fallen below two in three respondents.
Unsurprisingly, the trends mirror Boris Johnson’s own ratings for dealing with Covid: a super-high tick of approval at the start; a fall-off as there seemed to be no escape from a cycle of lockdowns and loosenings; an upsurge after the arrival and distribution of vaccines.
Pride comes before a fall, and all that, but the above helps to explain why it’s grim out there for Keir Starmer.