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Here are the figures for the last twelve months for:

  • The percentage expecting a Conservative majority government.
  • The percentage expecting a Tory-led coalition.
  • The percentage expecting a Conservative led minority.

And then the overall figure for those expecting a Tory led-government of some kind.

  • March 2021: 79, 3, 7 – 89 per cent.
  • February 2021: 77, 3, 7 – 87 per cent.
  • January 2021: 70, 4, 9 – 83 per cent.

  • December 2020: 68, 4, 7 – 79 per cent.
  • November 2020: 54, 10, 12 – 76 per cent.
  • October 2020: 58, 4, 10 – 72 per cent.
  • September 2020: 55, 4, 10 – 69 per cent.
  • August 2020: 67, 4, 9 – 80 per cent.
  • July 2020: 74, 5, 4 – 83 per cent.
  • May 2020: 77, 3 5 – 85 per cent.
  • April 2020: 87, 1, 3 – 91 per cent.
  • March 2020: 93, 2, 2 – 97 per cent.

So the proportion expecting a Conservative-led Government has never fallen below two in three respondents.

Unsurprisingly, the trends mirror Boris Johnson’s own ratings for dealing with Covid: a super-high tick of approval at the start; a fall-off as there seemed to be no escape from a cycle of lockdowns and loosenings; an upsurge after the arrival and distribution of vaccines.

Pride comes before a fall, and all that, but the above helps to explain why it’s grim out there for Keir Starmer.