What we believed should happen.

We wanted –

  • Andrea Leadsom back to be Leader of the House. Didn’t happen.
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg to move to be Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Didn’t happen.
  • Rishi Sunak to be Business Secretary. Didn’t happen – and any such plan would have been torn up anyway after Sajid Javid’s resignation.
  • No further Cabinet changes.  Didn’t happen.
  • Therese Coffey to stay on in post.  Happened.
  • Oliver Dowden to become Culture Secretary. Happened.

– – –

We predicted

  • Jesse Norman might be promoted. Didn’t happen.
  • “Julian Smith at Northern Ireland is presumed to be safe despite his history of insidery clashes with the Johnson line over Brexit.” Close.
  • Brandon Lewis probably would be promoted. Happened.
  • Ditto Oliver Dowden. Happened.
  • “If Geoffrey Cox departs the Government tomorrow – though not a full member of Cabinet he is entitled to attend it as Attorney General – it may be worth noting that Braverman is a lawyer.” We were thinking of her pugnacious ConHome piece on judicial power, much circulated after she was indeed appointed the next day.
  • “There is a question mark over Javid’s future. Relations between some of his Special Advisers and some in Number Ten are poisonous. The Chancellor has already seen one of his SpAds fired (Sonia Khan). The Prime Minister may push to dismiss at least two more – Mats Person and Sam Coates. Which Javid would resist. This one may not end well.” It didn’t.