It’s a fact of any politician’s life that no sooner have they won an election than they must start preparing to contest the next one. So it is with our tracker of election expectations – when we ask our panel of Conservative Party member readers of this site each month what outcome they expect at the next General Election.
It might seem odd to ask this question immediately after an election, when we so recently know the views of the people. Or strange to ask it when the existence of sizeable majority means that the next election is anything up to five years away (itself a peculiar sensation, after the years we’ve just gone through in which snap or accidental elections seemed constantly to be imminent). But that’s the point of a tracker question – one snapshot, five years out, might provide limited insight on its own when new, but it provides a benchmark from which we can start to track Conservative confidence up or down as the Government gets on with the job.
So here it is, that first snapshot. As you’d expect, Tory members are feeling bullish. Almost 92 per cent of respondents to our survey expect the next election to produce another Conservative majority government. Fewer than 1.5 per cent of respondents expect a Labour government of any sort – majority, minority or coalition.
This could change swiftly due to the over- or under-performance of either side, of course. We shall see.