Published:

300 comments

  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels fails to gain control of the Commons timetable.  Boris Johnson’s Government sails on into prorogation early next week.
  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels gains control of the Commons timetable, but fails before prorogation to pass a Bill seeking to prevent a No Deal Brexit.  Johnson’s Government carries on.
  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels gains control of the Commons timetable, and succeeds before prorogation in passing a Bill seeking to prevent a No Deal Brexit.  The Government advises the Queen to refuse Royal Assent to the Bill. She accepts the advice. Legal challenges follow.
  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels gains control of the Commons timetable, and succeeds before prorogation in passing a Bill seeking to prevent a No Deal Brexit.  The Government advises the Queen to refuse Royal Assent to the Bill. She rejects the advice. Johnson seeks and then gains a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.
  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels gains control of the Commons timetable, and succeeds before prorogation in passing a Bill seeking to prevent a No Deal Brexit.  The Government advises the Queen to refuse Royal Assent to the Bill. She rejects the advice. Johnson seeks a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, but fails to gain one.  He resigns.  A Government is formed under another Prime Minister.  Or this doesn’t happen – and an election then takes place.
  • The alliance of Opposition MPs and Conservative rebels gains control of the Commons timetable, and succeeds before prorogation in passing a Bill seeking to prevent a No Deal Brexit.   Johnson believes that the Bill isn’t legally watertight, and attempts to subvert it – for example, by adding, if the Bill requires a further Brexit extension, conditions to it that he knows the EU will refuse.
  • The courts rule against Johnson’s prorogation decision. He seeks a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and gains one.
  • The courts rule against Johnson’s prorogation decision. He seeks a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, but fails to gain one. He resigns.  A Government is formed under another Prime Minister.  Or this doesn’t happen – and an election then takes place.
  • Regardless of or in addition to any of the above, Johnson seeks a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and gains one.
  • Regardless of or in addition to any of the above, Johnson seeks a general election under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and fails to gain one – largely because Labour actually votes against the election it is currently calling for, arguing that it is unwilling to do so if such an election takes place after Brexit Day, thus ushering in a No Deal Brexit.  Johnson then resigns.  A Government is formed under another Prime Minister.  Or this doesn’t happen – and an election then takes place anyway.
  • Or a no confidence vote is moved in Johnson’s Government by Jeremy Corbyn under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and fails.
  • Or a no confidence vote is moved in Johnson’s Government by Corbyn under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and succeeds.  But Johnson stays on as Prime Minister under the 14 day provision, and wins an eventual confidence vote.
  • Or a no confidence vote is moved in Johnson’s Government by Corbyn under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and succeeds.  But Johnson stays on as Prime Minister under the 14 day provision, and loses an eventual confidence vote.  At which point Corbyn or another MP becomes Prime Minister, and wins a confidence vote.
  • Or a no confidence vote is moved in Johnson’s Government by Jeremy Corbyn under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and succeeds.  But Johnson stays on as Prime Minister under the 14 day provision, and loses an eventual confidence vote.  At which point Corbyn or another MP becomes Prime Minister, and loses a confidence vote. An election follows.
  • Or a no confidence vote is moved in Johnson’s Government by Jeremy Corbyn under the provisions of the Fixed Terms Act, and succeeds.  At which point the Queen sacks Johnson, and appoints Corbyn or another MP as Prime Minister. Cue a confidence vote – which that Prime Minister either wins or loses. In the latter event, an election follows.

300 comments for: What will happen in the Commons this week? Here are 15 possibilites. They are not exhaustive…

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.