Since last month’s survey, the Benn Act has been passed, setting the framework for yet another Brexit extension, and the Supreme Court has ruled against the Government over prorogation.  The Prime Minister insists that Britain will leave the EU by October 31…and yet also obey the law.  How he will do both is a mystery – perhaps even to Downing Street.

All that has had a big impact on our panel of Party members. Last month, 78 per cent of respondents believed that Britain would leave on time, and eight per cent didn’t.  This month, those figures are 48 per cent and 32 per cent.  We expect Boris Johnson to be cheered to the rafters whenever he appears at this Conservative Party Conference. But if our survey is right, roughly a third of activists doubt that he’ll be able to deliver.