The first finding from our July survey of over 1,300 Conservative members shows that Boris Johnson’s optimism appears to be infectious.
An outright majority of respondents – 58 per cent – believe the most likely outcome of the next election will be a Conservative majority. That’s up almost 30 percentage points on the finding of just 28.8 per cent saying so in our June survey.
That effect ripples down through the answers to this question. Those predicting a Tory-led coalition are down from 23.9 per cent last month to 14.1 per cent today.
Minority Tory government: marginally down from 13.9 per cent to 13.3.
Minority Labour government: down from 10.1 per cent to 4.6.
Labour-led coalition; down from 17.8 per cent to 8.6.
The proportion expecting majority Labour government: down from 5.5 per cent to 1.4.
Or look at it another way. The overall proportion expecting some form of Conservative government after the next election is now 85.4 per cent – more than two-thirds of whom expect that government to have a majority. A month ago the proportion who foresaw Conservative government of any type was 66.6 per cent – over half of whom expected a Conservative administration limited by coalition or minority status.
People’s expectations can be wrong, of course – just look at the 2017 election result. And the only certainty about the road ahead is that it is uncertain. But it’s clear that the Prime Minister’s focus on sunshine has spread to the previously demoralised Tory grassroots.