We reproduce above YouGov findings about which Mark Wallace wrote on this site last week. As he reported, “the identity of the new Prime Minister makes a difference to the polls. But Brexit is a far more dominant factor”.
According to the research above, Jeremy Hunt would deliver, were Brexit achieved and were he Prime Minister, a Conservative majority of 14 in a spring election – if the findings in question are punched into the Electoral Calculus reckoner.
By contrast, Boris Johnson would deliver – were Brexit achieved and were he Prime Minister – a Tory majority of 122, using the same method.
Were Brexit not achieved, the Conservatives would be obliterated, regardless of which one of them was Prime Minister. Now look at this week’s table below.
We suspect that the reason for the change is largely to do with profile. A week ago, Hunt was simply less well known than he is now. So the recognition factor is at work.
And the whole exercise can be dismissed as a dabble in hypotheticals. None the less, its central message – that what matters most to the Conservatives is delivering Brexit, not changing their leaders – sounds spot-on.
Having reported last week’s finding, it seems only fair to report this one too. We expect YouGov to have another go next week. We ourselves will be undertaking a further Next Tory Leader survey.