Here are the run-offs from our latest Next Tory Leader snap survey, carried out before the second Parliamentary ballot of the Conservative leadership contest.  Contenders are shown in ascending order of success.

– – –

Rory Stewart 24 per cent, Boris Johnson 73 per cent.

Stewart 25 per cent, Michael Gove 50 per cent.

Stewart 26 per cent, Jeremy Hunt 49 per cent.

Stewart 27 per cent, Sajid Javid 54 per cent.

Stewart 29 per cent, Dominic Raab 63 per cent.

– – –

Hunt 26 per cent, Johnson 72 per cent.

Hunt 35 per cent, Gove 42 per cent

Hunt 35 per cent, Javid 46 per cent.

Hunt 36 per cent, Raab 56 per cent.

– – –

Gove 26 per cent, Johnson 69 per cent.

Gove 38 per cent, Raab 53 per cent.

Gove 40 per cent, Javid 41 per cent.

– – –

Javid 27 per cent, Johnson 69 per cent.

Javid 37 per cent, Raab 54 per cent.

– – –

Raab 19 per cent, Johnson 69 per cent.

– – –

When we last carried out run-offs – in May and without Stewart – the running order was the same as in the previous set.

Hunt was bottom of our poll, Javid above him, Gove above him, Raab above him…and Johnson above him.  This time round, Stewart is bottom, and Javid has climbed above Gove.

  • If this morning’s Next Tory Leader survey is considered alongside these run-offs, Stewart emerges as the marmite candidate.  He has a dedicated, relatively small and growing following, which can maximise above a quarter of the vote.  But that’s it.  This finding reinforces YouGov’s poll of Tory members yesterday which found that he is the only candidate of whom they take a negative view.
  • Javid makes modest progress, while Gove slips backwards a bit, on the basis of these findings.  He scores better than Raab against Johnson, even though Raab beats him in the face-off.
  • And Johnson is the king of these run-offs, not taking less than 69 per cent of the vote in any case.  Watch how the absention rates go up and down more broadly.  Remainers and Soft Brexiteers abstain in a Johnson-Raab final, for example – some 12 per cent of the total.  Meanwhile, 25 per cent of respondents won’t choose between Hunt and Stewart: they will be Party members who favour a No Deal Brexit.