As ever, we take any opportunity to check the findings of the ConservativeHome members’ survey against published opinion polling of Party members.
Given that ours is not a weighted poll but a simple survey, it’s important to assess how it performs when compared with the pollsters’ efforts.
Last month, Paul looked at four common findings between our survey and YouGov’s polling of Conservative members, on a range of issues.
Now another YouGov poll offers us the chance to test another of our controversial findings from the survey. Before the EU election, two of our surveys – published on 21st April and 7th May, respectively – found that an outright majority of Party member respondents said they intended to vote for the Brexit Party. The first survey found 61.7 per cent saying so, and the second found 60.5 per cent giving that answer, which is a notably consistent response:
What people say they will do before an election and what they say afterwards that they actually did can of course turn out to be quite different. Most things are easier to think about doing than to actually do, particularly something radical like transgressing against ideas of loyalty.
And yet YouGov’s post-election polling of Conservative Party members, carried out 28th-30th May, produced a result which is strikingly close to our numbers pre-election. The pollster found that 59 per cent of Conservative members had voted for the Brexit Party – practically the same as our 61.7 and 60.5 per cent findings:
The Conservative vote share was also really quite close. Our surveys found 23.1 per cent and 22.2 per cent of members said they intended to vote Conservative, while YouGov’s figure for the proportion who actually did so is 19 per cent.
Beyond that, other outcomes deal in sufficiently small numbers as to be less meaningful, but I will include them here for the sake of completeness.
Our surveys found 6.8 per cent and 5.9 per cent saying they would vote for other parties (eg Lib Dems and Change UK), a number that YouGov puts at eight per cent.
We found 4.2 per cent and then five per cent of members intended not to vote, and YouGov found nine per cent eventually did so. That is likely the result of the 5.2 per cent/6.4 per cent who answered “Don’t know” to our question largely opting to abstain.
All in all, our results and YouGov’s are yet again remarkably close.