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Last month’s results are in italics, this month’s in non-italics below them.

– – –

Sajid Javid 36 per cent, Jeremy Hunt 35 per cent.

Javid 39 per cent, Hunt 29 per cent.

– – –

Michael Gove 43 per cent, Hunt 29 per cent.

Gove 49 per cent, Hunt 20 per cent.

– – –

Dominic Raab 60 per cent, Hunt 30 per cent.

Raab 64 per cent, Hunt 26 per cent.

– – –

Boris Johnson 61 per cent, Hunt 33 per cent.

Johnson 68 per cent, Hunt 25 per cent.

– – –

Gove 44 per cent, Javid 31 per cent.

Gove 47 per cent, Javid 27 per cent.

– – –

Raab 57 per cent, Javid 30 per cent.

Raab 64 per cent, Javid 24 per cent

– – –

Johnson 61 per cent, Javid 30 per cent.

Johnson 66 per cent, Javid 25 per cent.

– – –

Raab 52 per cent, Gove 36 per cent.

Raab 56 per cent, Gove 35 per cent

– – –

Johnson 57 per cent, Gove 34 per cent.

Johnson 60 per cent, Gove 33 per cent.

– – –

Johnson 46 per cent, Raab 39 per cent.

Johnson 51 per cent, Raab 33 per cent.

– – –

The order has the legendary regularity of clockwork.

Hunt is bottom of our poll, Javid above him, Gove above him, Raab above him…and Johnson above him.

And every single winner last month has improved his position this month – though in many cases the difference is marginal.

Note again that Raab and Johnson raise the turnout in their contests.

The survey got roughly 1300 responses to each run-off compared to about 1100 last month.

We selected the five for the same reason as last time round – they seemed on balance to be the candidates with the most potential support, if one takes into account MPs as well as activists.

That still holds for MPs as we write, just about, but we are keeping the situation under review.

We can’t say anything in closing we haven’t said elsewhere today: this leadership election is for Johnson to lose – at least if his Parliamentary colleagues forward his name to the members which (we repeat) is far from certain.

211 comments for: Next Tory Leader run-offs. Our panel’s support hasn’t changed. They want Johnson – followed by Raab, Gove, Javid and Hunt in that order.

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