In our Next Tory Leader run-offs, the first since last July, we pit the top five contenders from last month’s survey against each other.

These are also in our judgement the five people most likely, in various combinations, to make through to the final stage – and who Party members would therefore choose between, were the leadership election to be held now.

We begin with Jeremy Hunt v Sajid Javid.  The latter wins out by a single percentage.

The big point to clock here is the abstention rate.  Almost a quarter of our Party member panel respondents wouldn’t vote at all.  That suggests that members may sit on their hands in large numbers if two candidates who voted Remain in 2016 reach the final.

Or if two Cabinet members do so.  Or both.  Take your pick.