In our Christmas survey, the combined total who believed that a Tory Prime Minister would be back in Downing Street after the next election was some three in five respondents.
That was 32 per cent who expect the Conservatives to win with a majority, 18 per cent who expected a minority Tory Government, and add the nine per cent who expect a Conservative-led coalition.
Last month, those figures were 35 per cent, 19 per cent and nine per cent respectively – again, roughly three in five.
And this month, we have 43 per cent, 22 per cent and 11 per cent: over three quarters. This growing confidence won’t be related to the state of the Brexit negotiations.
Rather, it will reflect the greater negative impact that respondents expect the Independent Group to have on Labour.
In one sense, this finding defies common sense. The Government has no majority, is facing humiliation on the central matter of British politics, shows little sense of strategic direction and has all but broken down as a coherent unit.
In another, it is entirely predictable. The Conservative crisis is Brexit-related. Labour’s stretches much wider – to engulf attitudes to Russia, anti-semitism, defence, foreign policy and capitalism itself.
Hence this result. We are not at all sure that Party members should be so confident. But there you go.