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Tot up the 32 per cent who expect the Conservatives to win with a majority, add the 18 per cent who expect a minority Tory Government, and then add the nine per cent who expect a Conservative-led coalition…and you have 59 per cent, as near three in five as makes no difference.

That’s almost full circle.  Last January’s survey produced exactly the same headline figure, and the total rose through the first half of the year into the 70s. March saw the highest finding of 75 per cent, and similar figures were racked up in the months before the Chequers summit and proposals last July.

The total then dropped to 50 per cent last July, and has bobbed about the 50s or 60s since then.  This month’s finding shows an eight per cent rise from last month.  It may well be that Labour’s own chaotic and opportunistic approach to Brexit, together with its bungling of a no confidence motion in the Government, has depressed its rating in this question somewhat.

81 comments for: Our survey. Three in five Party members expect a Conservative-led Government after the next election.

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