The totals wanting May to announce her resignation as Party leader “now” for each month since the Chequers Plan was unveiled this summer have been as follows:

  • July – 45 per cent.
  • August – 40 per cent.
  • September – 35 per cent.
  • October – 42 per cent.

That 45 per cent in July was “easily the worst finding for Downing Street since this survey question was first asked in the aftermath of last year’s general election.”

In short, our findings painted a picture of a plurality of members believing, from the summer of 2017 until the summer of this year, that Theresa May should neither lead the Party into the next election nor quit immediately.

Chequers broke up that pattern – and, if the survey is to be believed, the Prime Minister’s proposed deal has made her position among members even worse.

Never before in the best part of 18 months of asking this survey question have more than half of respondents said that she should go now.  The 80 per cent believing either that she should quit either now or before the next election is also a record.

So if there is a backlash of sympathy for May among Party members, the survey finds no evidence of it.

This is a lamentable background against which to campaign for the deal, and try to win the hearts and minds of activists.  If the survey is right, most members have faith in neither it nor her.