For all the hype in some parts of the press about the concept of a second referendum supposedly gaining ground, even within the Conservative Party, the 1,201 Party members responding to our latest survey are notably unmoved.
Amazingly so, in fact – the passage of a month has produced near-identical results. Today, 9.49 per cent of respondents support a second referendum; a month ago, 9.51 per cent did so. Today, 89.01 per cent oppose a re-run; a month ago, that figure stood at 89.41 per cent.
What does this tell us?
First, it would be wrong to pretend there is no support for such a ballot in the Conservative grassroots. There is some (hence this site has given a platform to it), but judging from our survey it forms a rump of fewer than one in ten. The Conservative Party is a broad church, and should continue to be so.
Second, that group is consistent but also shows no sign of growing, so talk of rising cross-party support for the idea should be treated with some scepticism. At the moment, rather fewer than 9.5 per cent of Conservative MPs back a second referendum, publicly at least, so if they are anything like the membership there might yet be a few more keeping their opinion to themselves.
Third, opposition to a second referendum is much higher than opposition to EU membership. Our survey has repeatedly found somewhere between 60 and 70 per cent of respondents to hold what you might call a Eurosceptic view – voting Leave, or opposing Chequers, or disliking the Prime Minister’s proposed deal, for example. This result goes beyond that – suggesting a sizeable majority even of Conservative members of a less hardened view – who voted Remain, supported Chequers, or back May’s EU deal – do not support a second referendum. If the campaign can’t even appeal to that group successfully, it has few other places to look for support in Tory ranks.