The claim that Graham Brady is on the verge of receiving 48 letters from Conservative MPs, demanding a vote of confidence in Theresa May, has been made so many times that it is tempting to write the prospect off altogether.

But the chance of both pro-Leave and pro-Remain MPs combining, presumably by accident, to do so during the next week or so shouldn’t be lightly dismissed.

The tactical question for those set on No Deal and No Brexit alike would be whether it is in their interests to risk a ballot that could see confidence expressed in the Prime Minister by an emphatic majority.

However, it ain’t necessarily so.  The temptation on both groups to create maximum chaos, thus imperilling May’s draft deal further, is very considerable.  Iain Duncan Smith recognised the possibility yesterday evening.

It is easy to deploy the old saying about the boy who cried wolf.  But the point of the story is that the wolf eventually came.  If Sir Graham suddenly emerges this week to declare that a vote is on, don’t be taken by surprise.

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