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All the usual caveats apply. Most people will have been thinking even less about politics than usual at the height of the school holiday season.  The next election is a long way away.  Questions about polls’ accuracy haven’t gone away.  And there is no proven connection between the Government’s Brexit policy change and post-Chequers opinion polling.

None the less, it is plausible to suggest that Theresa May’s new Brexit policy pushed a small but significant proportion of former Tory supporters elsewhere – notably including UKIP – though some appear to have come back since.

The Tories have now led in only one poll since Chequers, according to the list kept by Antony Wells of YouGovHe warned that that result “could…be normal sample variation”, and so it seems to have been.  In an earlier summary this month, he concluded that “back in May and June polls were showing a consistent Tory lead – that has gone”.

Downing Street and CCHQ have been pushing Chequers at Party members recently, and we can expect a broader offensive from them during the run-up to Party Conference.  We will see in due course if it makes any difference.

Today’s Deltapoll in the Sun on Sunday puts Labour “three points ahead of the Tories”, though the paper’s online story doesn’t give the figures as we write.  Wells wrote this week that the wreath row probably wouldn’t harm Jeremy Corybn, and this finding is not out line with his analysis.

It might also imply that the Boris Johnson row hasn’t made much difference to the overall post-Chequers pattern either, but it would hazardous to read too much into one result, of which we presently don’t even have the headline figures.

August 9 (ICM):

  • Conservatives: 39 per cent.
  • Labour: 40 per cent.
  • LibDems: 7 per cent.

August 9 (YouGov):

  • Conservatives: 39 per cent.
  • Labour: 35 per cent.
  • LibDems: 10 per cent.

July 24: (IpsosMORI):

  • Conservatives: 38 per cent.
  • Labour: 38 per cent.
  • LibDems: 10 per cent.

July 23 (YouGov):

  • Conservatives: 38 per cent
  • Labour: 38 per cent
  • LibDems: 10 per cent

July 22 (ICM):

  • Conservatives: 40 per cent.
  • Labour: 41 per cent.
  • LibDems: 8 per cent.

July 20 (YouGov):

  • Conservatives: 38 per cent.
  • Labour: 39 per cent.
  • LibDems: 9 per cent.

July 17 (YouGov):

  • Conservatives: 36 per cent
  • Labour: 41 per cent
  • LibDems: 9 per cent

July 15 (Deltapoll):

  • Conservatives: 37 per cent
  • Labour: 42 per cent
  • LibDems: 10 per cent

July 15 (Opinium):

  • Conservatives: 36 per cent
  • Labour: 40 per cent
  • LibDems: 8 per cent

July 11 (YouGov):

  • Conservatives: 37 per cent.
  • Labour: 39 per cent.
  • Lib Dems: 9 per cent.

330 comments for: How Chequers seems to have bled the Conservative vote

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