Here is the figure for each month from July last year for the proportion of survey respondents who have said that Theresa May should resign as Conservative leader forthwith.
11 per cent, 9 per cent, 14 per cent, 11 per cent, 10 per cent, 7 per cent, 25 per cent, 13 per cent, 8 per cent, 13 per cent, 24 per cent and 21 per cent.
So this month’s 45 per cent is more than double last month’s – and is easily the worst finding for Downing Street since this survey question was first asked in the aftermath of last year’s general election.
Over two in five Party member respondents want May out as Tory leader now. That 45 per cent figure is perilously close to 50 per cent.
Now here is the combined total of those wanting her to resign either now or before the next election – again, since last July.
62 per cent, 61 per cent, 65 per cent, 64 per cent, 62 per cent, 59 per cent, 71 per cent, 55 per cent, 63 per cent, 63 per cent, 69 per cent and 72 per cent.
So this month’s total of 81 per cent is also a record. That’s eight out of ten Party members.
Some will blame the new Chequers policy and White Paper. Others will point a finger at divisions and resignations. Others still will blame both. In a sense, it scarcely matters.
These results are so abysmal that the Prime Minister’s only hope of turning them round is either to somehow get a Brexit deal through the Commons, and see it received well by voters…
…Or to fail to agree a deal with the EU and make a success of No Deal. There don’t seem to be any other options – certainly not in time for Party Conference. (She could surely not survive a switch to backing EEA entry.)
A grim coda: since we started asking this question, the proportion of respondents answering that May should go as Party leader before the next election has never fallen below 50 per cent.