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Our Tory members’ panel survey. Expectation of a Conservative-led government after the next election drops to a record low.

Paul Goodman

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The previous lowest total for those believing either a) that there will be a Conservative majority after the next election, or b) that it will produce a Tory-led coalition, or c) that a minority Conservative Government will take office was 59 per cent.  That was January’s finding.

This month it is down to 55 per cent, from 73 per cent last month – a dizzying fall of 18 per cent, and the lowest total on record for this question since we began asking it in the wake of last year’s general election.

Since the last members’ panel survey was conducted, the Chequers Cabinet summit has taken place and the consequent Government White Paper has been published.  And opinion polls have shown drops in Tory ratings.  Our finding this month will be directly connected, and there is little more that can usefully be added.

Other, perhaps, than it’s worth noting the lack of confidence in the Conservatives being able to govern, after the next election, as a majority party.  The totals in the other two categories haven’t moved much.  But there has been a collapse in those believing that the Party can form a government by itself.

Here are the monthly totals in full:

This month

  • Conservative majority: 27 per cent
  • Minority Conservative Government: 21 per cent
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 50 per cent

June

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 19 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 9 per cent.

Total: 73 per cent

May

  • Conservative majority: 44 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 21 per cent
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent

Total: 73 per cent

April

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 18 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 71 per cent

March

  • Conservative majority: 51 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 17 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent

Total: 75 per cent

February

  • Conservative majority: 40 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 16 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 63 per cent

January

  • Conservative majority: 35 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 17 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 59 per cent

December

  • Conservative majority: 46 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 68 per cent.

November

  • Conservative majority: 44 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 14 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 10 per cent.

Total: 68 per cent.

October

  • Conservative majority: 39 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 62 per cent.

September

  • Conservative majority: 38 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 61 per cent

August

  • Conservative majority: 47 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 69 per cent

July

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 14 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 66 per cent

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