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The ConservativeHome monthly survey is out and should be in the inboxes of panel members.

Three quick points.

First, we ask a special question about whether the Defence Secretary should or shouldn’t get the spending increase he is campaigning for.

Second, we have added Penny Mordaunt to the Next Tory Leader question, as Mark Wallace said we would when he wrote about her on the site recently.

Finally, we are adding to that question some run-offs – asking how panel members would vote if named MPs were put before them in the party member stage of a leadership contest.

Choosing them, like selecting MPs for the Next Tory Leader question itself, is necessarily impressionistic.  We have gone with four senior Ministers – Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and, slightly hesitantly, Boris Johnson.

These seem to us the four most likely MPs to be whittled down to two by their colleagues, in the Parliamentary stage of a leadership election, to then be put before Party members in the consequent leadership ballot.

But that’s a snapshot judgement, and it could all be different next month.

P.S: We don’t believe for a moment that his colleagues would put Jacob Rees-Mogg through to that final two – nor indeed that he intends to stand in the event of a vacancy.

But we might just try him in a run-off next month to see how he gets on.

138 comments for: Should Williamson get the defence spending rise he wants? Plus: introducing Next Tory Leader run-offs. Our monthly survey is out.

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