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So rounded up, the figures are –

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 19 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 9 per cent.

Total: 73 per cent

Now here below are the results for this question in each monthly survey since the last election.

May

  • Conservative majority: 44 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 21 per cent
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent

Total: 73 per cent

April

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 18 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 71 per cent

March

  • Conservative majority: 51 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 17 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent

Total: 75 per cent

February

  • Conservative majority: 40 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 16 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 63 per cent

January

  • Conservative majority: 35 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 17 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 59 per cent

December

  • Conservative majority: 46 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 68 per cent.

November

  • Conservative majority: 44 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 14 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 10 per cent.

Total: 68 per cent.

October

  • Conservative majority: 39 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 62 per cent.

September

  • Conservative majority: 38 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 8 per cent.

Total: 61 per cent

August

  • Conservative majority: 47 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 15 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 69 per cent

July

  • Conservative majority: 45 per cent.
  • Minority Conservative Government: 14 per cent.
  • Conservative-led coalition: 7 per cent.

Total: 66 per cent

So we have a paradox.

The Government’s Brexit difficulties have increased in recent months…but confidence in the Conservatives winning a majority has also risen.

Indeed, the total expecting a Tory-led administration of some kind after the next election has hit over 70 per cent for the past four months running.

What’s going on?

The answer may have less to do with confidence in the Conservatives than with a lack of confidence in Labour. Rightly or wrongly, there is a sense in some quarters that we are past “Peak Corbyn”.

That 70 per cent or so figure first appeared during the run-up to the local elections.  This period coincided with the peak of the Labour anti-semitism row, and the Jewish Board of Deputies’ demonstration against the party in Parliament Square.  The results themselves were disappointing for the Labour, which gained fewer councils than the Conservatives.  And Labour has not made the opinion poll breakthrough that one would expect with a Government in this condition.

The confidence of our panel members may be mistaken, but it is not irrational.

111 comments for: Our survey. Seven in ten respondents believe that there will be a Conservative-led government after the next election.

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