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Perhaps the reappearance of Brexit at the top of the political news, in the context of differences at the top of the Government over the Customs Union, or the Windrush scandal running into its second week, will dent the Conservative rating a bit and up Labour’s a little.

None the less, Labour hasn’t put on a single point in any of the last five polls, as below.

 

YouGov (April 21)

Conservatives: 43 per cent (plus three)

Labour: 38 per cent (minus two)

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent (minus one).

 

Survation (April 15)

Conservatives: 40 per cent (plus two)

Labour: 40 per cent (minus five)

Liberal Democrats: 9 per cent (no change).

 

Opinium (April 15)

Conservatives: 40 per cent (minus two)

Labour: 40 per cent (no change)

Liberal Democrats: 7 per cent (plus one).

 

Comres (April 15)

Conservatives: 40 per cent (minus two).

Labour: 40 per cent (no change).

Liberal Democrats: 7 per cent (plus one).

 

YouGov (April 14)

Conservatives: 40 per cent (minus two)

Labour: 40 per cent (minus one)

Liberal Democrats: 9 per cent (plus two).

 

As we say, this may change.  Most of the movement is small – some very much so.  It is possible to believe that Labour is experiencing a knock-on from the anti-semitism row; voters tend to react badly to parties parading their divisions over several weeks.  There is some evidence that Corbyn’s own personal standing has taken a bit of a knock.

Anthony Wells of YouGov, who keeps the tally from which this is drawn, is doubtful whether either Syria or Windrush will make a long-term difference to anything.  He is an old hand and probably right.

The country remains divided poll-wise into two unarmed camps.  One cannot stick the Conservatives at any price.  The other is unified by its fear of Corbyn.  It looks as though it will take a lot to shift voters significantly from one column to the other – perhaps a downturn, of which there is no sign, “despite Brexit”.

223 comments for: Opinion polls catch-up. The Tories’ troubles come and go – but they keep hitting about 40 per cent, or more, in the polls

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