This week’s reshuffle is reported in advance as bringing no change to the very top posts today; up to six Cabinet Ministers to be moved or demoted, and a wave of women and ethnic minority and diverse young things to be appointed tomorrow. We will see shortly how much of all that is true. Cabinet Ministers were told yesterday that the shuffle will be “significant”, but that word covers a multitude of possibilities: after all, they’re scarcely likely to be told that it will be “insignificant”. But as we said yesterday, who gains from the reshuffle matters less than what it does.
At any rate, it’s worth repeating in advance of the moves who our panel want promoted to Cabinet rank: Dominic Raab and Rory Stewart from among the Ministers of State, with Jo Johnson a bit of a way behind them. The first two are already in our Next Tory leader poll, and the shuffle should be watched for its impact on any future contest.
We would be surprised if the top write-ins made it, simply because none of them are Ministers. Jacob Rees-Mogg and James Cleverly were the only two to reach double figures, followed by Johny Mercer and John Redwood. It is being written that Cleverly may go to CCHQ in some form. We first said that Rees-Mogg should be offered a Ministerial post in 2013, and so claim to be the original founders of Moggmentum (since our chutzpah knows no bounds). But a leap to Cabinet would be a bit of a stretch. Better first to offer Rees-Mogg a senior job at, say, the Treasury or Business or Trade.
A Live Blog will be up and running on the site once the shuffle begins in earnest.