It may just be that there is a dramatic change during the next few hours, and the Conservative position recovers sufficently for Theresa May to win a workable majority. However, some senior Tories in the campaign are now briefing that the BBC exit poll and YouGov’s original calculation were right – and that she will fall short.
In any event, it is clear that this election has left her authority deeply wounded, perhaps fatally, even if she returns to Downing Street as Prime Minister later today. When she called the poll, the Tories expected a landslide. This morning, they believed they would win emphatically.
ConservativeHome has been speaking to backbenchers and Ministers, and though there is some loyalist sentiment the picture isn’t pretty. The consensus view is that –
And all this, remember, is on the assumption that May somehow gains a working majority, or is Prime Minister in a hung Parliament. In the latter circumstance, a second election in the autumn will be likely. With the threat of a second election hanging over their heads, Conservative backbenchers would be unlikely to mount a leadership challenge, but May’s days as leader would be numbered.