Screen Shot 2017-05-05 at 07.35.28Local council results in England and Wales to date with 19 of 88 councils declared.

Conservatives: 441 councillors –         + 113.

Labour: 308 councillors –                       – 58.

Liberal Democrats: 118 councillors –     – 13.

UKIP: No councillors –                           – 30.

Plaid Cymru: 40 councillors –                +  8.

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The Conservatives have gained majorities on Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Isle of Wight, Lincolnshire, and Monmouthshire from NOC.  Tim Bowles (pictured right) has won the West of England Mayoral election.

Labour has lost control of Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend and Blaenau Gwent.

The Liberal Democrats have failed to break through in the south-west, though they have defeated two Tory council leaders, and have a small net loss of seats to date.

And UKIP is on track to become an ex-parrot.

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  • To date, the Conservatives are doing exceptionally well. John Curtice says that this could be the Party’s best election night since 1974…
  • …And Labour are duly set to perform worse than in 2013 when these seats were last contested, although its vote is holding up better in some areas, including parts of Wales, than was expected…
  • …But what appears to be killing Labour is a mass movement of UKIP voters, many of whom once voted Labour, to the Conservatives – having, no doubt, voted Leave en route…
  • …While the Liberal Democrats are failing to make the progress in these local elections that local by-elections might have suggested.  Matt Singh wonders if this is illustrating Goodhart’s law.

A tentative conclusion –

Theresa May is planning a Great Patriotic Election, in which

  • Working class Labour Brexit-backing or Corbyn-horrified voters (or both) go straight to the Conservatives.
  • As do their UKIP equivalents.
  • While most Remain voters decide that, although they didn’t support Brexit, May should be allowed to get on with it.  This halts any Liberal Democrat revival in its tracks.

Nothing much in these results so far suggests that the Prime Minister’s strategy will fail.

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