The best part of two-thirds of Party may say in our survey that they will vote Leave, but roughly the same number say that they believe Remain will win the referendum.

The 65 per cent of those respondents who declare that they think Britain will vote to stay in the EU is up from 59 per cent last month and 52 per cent the month before.  The longer the campaign has gone on, the more these readers have thought that the status quo will prevail.

A footnote. These results were obtained at the end of the week before last: we have pushed back their publication (and that of yesterday’s League Table) simply because of the sheer amount of referendum-related material on the site.

Last week in particular and this one too have been better for the Leave campaign, so readers must judge for themselves whether the survey’s findings would have been different had we polled a week later.

The proportion who said that they believe Leave will win was 20 per cent this month, 24 per cent the month before and 30 per cent the month before that.


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