Poll - EU Ref Member Expectations (May 16)


Almost 60 per cent of Conservative Party members believe the UK will vote to remain in the EU in June, according to our survey.

Meanwhile just a quarter think we’ll vote to leave, and 16 per cent aren’t sure.

This decisive margin comes despite the fact that 59 per cent of party members in our survey record themselves as “definitely for leave”, with another ten per cent “leaning to leave”.

Results like this suggest that, despite numerous polls showing that high-profile interventions like that of President Obama aren’t cutting through as Remain might wish, a strongly eurosceptic membership is strongly pessimistic about Vote Leave’s chances.