Sometimes, party members are astonishingly consistent. So it is with their response to our latest survey question about Europe. Last month, 70.7 per cent of them said that, with what they know about the renegotiation process, they would vote to leave the EU, whilst 24.3 per cent said that they would remain. This month, the equivalent figures are 70.9 and 24.4 per cent. There’s just fractions in it.
Of course, this could just be the illusion of consistency. During the past month there have been two events, in particular, that might have changed sentiments below the headline figures: David Cameron’s letter to Donald Tusk, and the terror attacks in Paris. Have either of these moved party members from the Remain column into the Leave one? Or the other way round? We cannot tell, but it’s possible.
In any case, the upshot is that – still – over two-thirds of party members are minded to vote to leave the EU. That’s quite some majority.
> Almost 700 party members responded to the survey.