151130 Outcome of next election

It’s been some time since we looked at party members’ predictions for the next election, which we seek in each of our monthly surveys. I think the last time we did so was August, which is before Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader, George Osborne’s tribulations over tax credits, and so much else. What do numbers show now and what have they shown in the meantime?

The answers are in the graph at the top of this page. The light blue line, representing those party members who predict a Conservative majority in 2020, is now the highest it’s ever been. 89.9 per cent of respondents to our latest survey foresee a majority, which tops the previous record of 89.3 per cent from October.

The sum of all respondents expecting another Tory government (be it a majority, a minority or a coalition) doesn’t top the 97.3 per cent achieved in August, but it’s still pretty high at 96.5 per cent. So far, Corbyn’s leadership isn’t doing much to diminish party members’ optimism.

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