Con Leaders August-01

Our monthly survey used to produce a monthly outcome: Boris Johnson and Theresa May battling it out at the top of the future leader poll. One month, Boris would triumph. The next, it would be May. Boris, May. May, Boris. And so on and so on and so on…

…until the General Election. Since the Conservatives’ triumph on 7th May, a new “Big Three” has emerged. This was typified by last month’s results: Boris led with 23.2 per cent of the vote; Sajid Javid was almost equal with him, with 23.0 per cent; and George Osborne was just behind them both, on 22.3 per cent. May had sunk to a distant fourth place.

This month yields another shake-up. The Big Three is still more or less in place, but their individual rankings are very different. Osborne has shot to the top, with a hefty 30.9 per cent of the vote. That puts him around 12 points ahead of Javid, who is a couple of points ahead of Boris.

Here are the results in full:

  • George Osborne: 30.9 per cent (up nine points).
  • Sajid Javid: 18.7 per cent (down four points).
  • Boris Johnson: 16.6 per cent (down six points).
  • Liam Fox: 13.9 per cent (up three points).
  • Theresa May: 13.1 per cent (no change).
  • Michael Gove: 4.5 per cent (no change).
  • Jeremy Hunt: 2.1 per cent (no change).
  • Nicky Morgan: 0.8 per cent (no change).

This is actually the first time that Osborne has led our future leader poll, and one of the clearest signals of party members’ reinvigorated enthusiasm for him. What a difference an election victory makes! The Chancellor who is regarded as one of its architects, and who has since delivered the first all-Tory Budget for almost twenty years, has prospered.

Although it’s always worth remembering that things can change. Just over a year ago, May also achieved a 12-point lead in our future leader poll. Now she’s almost 18 points behind.

> Over 700 party members responded to the survey.