150803 Election result graph

Last month, when I blogged about party members’ expectations for 2020, I made a point about their newfound optimism after 7th May. This is something that I half-thought would simmer down. Once the initial thrill of the majority had faded, the usual dyspepsia would return.

This month… well, actually, if anything, party members are becoming even more optimistic. 89.1 per cent of them now foresee a Conservative majority after the next election, which is almost 6 points higher than the previous total, and the highest we’ve ever recorded. If you also add in those who predict either a Tory minority government or a Tory-led coalition, some 97.3 per cent now expect the Conservatives to return to power in 2020.

Causes are always difficult things to draw from surveys, but let’s draw one anyway. Could this be The Corbyn Effect in action?

> Over 700 party members responded to the survey.