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  • 20 per cent of Party member respondents to ConHome’s pre-election monthly survey say that the Conservatives will win a majority.
  • 23 per cent say that there will be a second Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition.
  • And 30 per cent say that the Party will form a minority government.

That’s 72 per cent believing that David Cameron will be back in Downing Street on May 8 – a drop of 4 per cent since last month.  There has been has been a 7 per cent fall in the proportion of those expecting a Conservative minority government, a 5 per cent rise in those believing that there will be a second coalition and a 1 per cent fall in those believing that there will be a Tory majority.

That 23 per cent expecting a second blue-yellow coalition is a record high, following last month’s total of 18 per cent, which was also a record high (see graph below).

Once again and as last month, it’s useful to compare this finding with these respondents’ expectations of the number of seats they actually expect the Party to win.

The proportion of those saying that the Conservatives will win 290 seats has fallen from 58 per cent to 52 per cent – mirroring the fall in the proportion stating that Cameron will return to Downing Street.

And, again, that 52 per cent figure is 20 points lower than the 72 per cent figure for those believing that Cameron will make it back to Number 10.  Party members’ expectations look rather less rosy when they’re asked to give an estimate for seats won rather than a more general prediction.

As I wrote last month, there is of course no guarantee that Cameron would be able to lead a coalition or a minority government on 290 seats.  I’m simply using that total as a seats total that might just make a Tory or Tory-led government sustainable.  My own rough benchmark of a point where such a government becomes more probable than not is 300 seats.  Others will have their own figure.

If the percentage of those expecting the Conservatives to win 300 seats is added up, we have 32 per cent – a drop from from 36 per cent last month.

150501 Election result graph

The survey is tested against a control panel that was originally supplied by YouGov.  Over 850 party member readers replied to this question.