- 21 per cent of Party member respondents to ConHome’s pre-election monthly survey say that the Conservatives will win a majority.
- 18 per cent say that there will be a second Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition.
- And 37 per cent say that the Party will form a minority government.
That’s a record 76 per cent stating that David Cameron will be back in Downing Street on May 8 – and staying there (see graph below). This finding is up two per cent from last month – which itself was a record high. (And…the 18 per cent result for a second Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition is also a record high.)
However, it’s worth comparing this confident finding with these respondents’ expectations of the number of seats they actually expect the Party to win.
If the proportion of those saying that the Conservatives will win 290 seats or more is totted up, it comes in at 58 per cent – well short of that 76 per cent figure.
And there is of course no guarantee that Cameron would be able to lead a coalition or a minority government on 290 seats. I’m simply using that total as a seats total that might just make a Tory or Tory-led government sustainable. My own rough benchmark of a point where such a government becomes more probable than not is 300 seats. Others will have their own figure.
If the percentage of those expecting the Conservatives to win 300 seats is added up, we have 36 per cent – rather a long distance from that 76 per cent finding.
Party members evidently feel safer predicting the return of Cameron to Number 10 than forecasting a seats total that would make this likely.
The survey is tested against a control panel that was originally supplied by YouGov. Over 1000 party member readers replied to the survey overall.