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Since David Cameron has declared the next Conservative leadership contest open for business, it’s timely to remind our readers of the current state of play in this site’s monthly leadership survey poll.

Here are this month’s results, as posted on this site earlier this month:

Boris Johnson: 22 per cent (down three points).

Theresa May: 20 per cent (down three points).

Sajid Javid: 14 per cent (up three points).

Liam Fox: 12 per cent (up three points).

George Osborne: 9 per cent (up one point).

David Davis 7 per cent (up one point).

Michael Gove: 6 per cent (no change).

Owen Paterson: 5 per cent (no change).

Philip Hammond: 4 per cent (up one point).

Jeremy Hunt 2 per cent (up two points).

Chris Grayling: 1 per cent (no change).

  • As far as we can see, the Prime Minister doesn’t plan the leadership election to take until as late as the spring of 2020 itself.  So if he’s still in place then, the list of runners and riders will doubtless look very different.
  • The above is by no means a full list of potential runners and riders even now.  For example, Adam Afriyie might well stand (or seek to)
  • So were a leadership contest to take place tomorrow, it could well be an Andy Warhol Leadership Election, in which some of the contenders test the water, find no support, and withdraw – thus becoming famous, as Warhol put it, for 15 minutes.
  • Finally, although such an election won’t take place tomorrow, it may well take place well before 2020 – indeed, as soon as this summer, if Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister.