141229 Election result graphParty member respondents to our monthly survey, and other ones, have three means of expressing a belief that David Cameron will return to Downing Street next May.

The first is that he will head a majority Conservative Government.

The second is that he will lead a minority one.

The third is that he will form a second Coalition with the Liberal Democrats.  The highest proportion this year of those Party member respondents believing that such will be the next election’s outcome was 17 per cent (in January).

The highest percentage of those taking the first option – in other words, replying that they expect a majority Conservative Government – was 27 per cent (in April).

And the highest proportion of those preferring the second option is to be found in our most recent poll.  It has been climbing for the last four months, and has now hit 40 per cent.

This seems to me to represent a growing view that the drag on the Party’s showing by the vote distribution and UKIP will be offset by the drag on Labour’s by the SNP, the Greens…and Ed Miliband.

68 per cent of Party member respondents now expect Cameron to make it back to Number 10 compared to a high of 70 per cent in July.  This is margin-of-error stuff.

What is certain is that confidence in this outcome has grown since the early months of the year.  In March, 58 per cent of these respondents expected Cameron to be Prime Minister again post-May.