Those strongly supportive are a small sub-section of the whole – consistently under ten per cent. The lowest percentage for this option was 3 per cent in March. The highest is 7 per cent, reached in this most recent survey.
Those broadly supportive have clocked it at about a quarter of the sample, or a bit more. The lowest proportion backing this option was 25 per cent, again in March. The highest is 31 per cent – again, this month.
So the percentage of Party member respondents currently supportive of a second Coalition with the Liberal Democrats in some form after May is currently 38 per cent – above one in three, and approaching two in five.
Those strongly opposed again come in at roughly a quarter of those who reply. The lowest figure for this category was 22 per cent, reached in February and April. The score from this poll is 26 per cent.
Those broadly opposed have hovered at about a third of respondents, or slightly below. The total from this month is 25 per cent – a new low.
So the proportion of Party member respondents currently opposed to that second Coalition with the Liberal Democrats in some form after May is 51 per cent, just about half.
Elsewhere, the percentage believing that the Coalition is a good thing for the country has also reached a new high and that believing that it is a bad thing a new low – 64 per cent and 31 per cent respectively. Similarly, those thinking that is a good thing for the party also record a new high and low – 35 per cent a 69 per cent.
What may be happening is that while a majority are still against a second Coalition, the approach of the election is concentrating minds a bit. For all the quarrels between the partners – real and staged – a substantial bloc of party members would presently be willing to give a deal with Nick Clegg’s party another go.
ConservativeHome believes that the party as a whole should vote on any second Coalition – just as Liberal Democrat members did on this current one. I think these findings help to buttress my view that party members would vote for any deal with the Liberal Democrats that Conservative MPs had themselves endorsed by secret ballot.
Such an outcome would give any such arrangement a legitimacy and authority within the Party that the current one has always lacked.
Over 850 party members replied to the survey. The responses are tested against a control panel which was supplied by YouGov.