Screen shot 2014-08-05 at 08.40.09The full result from Party member respondents is above.

  • The effect of Theresa May’s Police Federation address seems to be wearing off.  Her rating is down for a second month running from its high, soon after that speech, of 35 per cent.  Her lead is still a firm one none the less.
  • The reception she got in June makes a wider point.  A politician’s presence in the news can matter a lot to this survey.  Boris was out of the news at the time the survey was conducted – and his rating has scarcely moved.  It is up by a point, well within any margin of error.
  • But publicity isn’t everything.  Philip Hammond has gained a big promotion with quite a bit of coverage.  However, his rating is up by only two points.  Gove is stationary, and now leads what might be called the also-rans.  David Davis is still fourth.
  • George Osborne is up a point and retains third place.  With May and the Mayor, he now makes up the third of a Big Three.  Remember: this leadership question is a post-Cameron one.  Over three-quarters of Party respondents now want him to lead the Party into next May’s election.

There were over 800 party member responses to the survey.  These are tested against the responses of a control panel supplied by YouGov.