Two months ago, the proportion of Party members saying that the Conservative leadership should arrange an election pact with UKIP was as follows:

Yes: 41 per cent.

No: 54 per cent

Don’t Know: 5 per cent.

Last month, the result was as follows:

Yes: 33 per cent

No: 58 per cent.

Don’t Know: 9 per cent.

This month, we have:

Yes: 30 per cent.

No: 62 per cent.

Don’t Know: 8 per cent.

We’ve now asked about a Tory-UKIP pact four times, and this is the lowest proportion in support of it and the highest percentage opposed to date.

A hardening of political positions as the election draws nearer, the success of the budget, the continuing vulnerability of Labour…all these are doubtless contributing factors.

I expect the percentage wanting a pact to rise after the European elections, and then to fall again as the general election approaches.

That ConservativeHome readers are more UKIP-flavoured/right-wing Tory is indicated again by the poll result among non-Party member readers, which is:

Yes: 37 per cent.

No: 54 per cent.

Don’t Know: 9 per cent.

Almost 900 Party members replied to the survey.  Its results are tested against a control panel supplied by YouGov.