Here is the result:

  • Theresa May: 23 per cent (No change).
  • Boris Johnson: 22 per cent (No change).
  • Michael Gove: 15 per cent (+ 1).
  • David Davis: 11 per cent.* (+ 1).
  • William Hague: 11 per cent.* (- 3).
  • Philip Hammond: 7 per cent ( + 3).
  • George Osborne: 6 per cent (+ 1).
  • Owen Paterson: 3 per cent (+ 1).
  • Chris Grayling: 2 per cent (No change).

Last month, the Home Secretary beat the Mayor by three votes and, the month before, by only one.  This month, that margin was six.

The survey went out on Wednesday.  The immigration figures became public on Thursday.  I keep an eye on the results as they come in.  Counter-intuitively, Boris was ahead of May on the Wednesday – but behind by the end of the week.  What are Party members thinking?

To which the answer, of course, is that your guess is as good as mine, but my view is that they believe no-one else in Cabinet to be making the cut as a future leader at the moment.  It’s as simple as that.

There is little other movement, bar a slight drop for Hague and rise for Hammond.  For all the current speculation about George Osborne’s leadership ambitions, he remains marooned low in the rankings – though I haven’t looked yet at the Cabinet league table.  Last month, he soared up it to second place.

And the leader Party members want for the next election?  Why, David Cameron, of course.  His rating rises again this month, hitting 74 per cent.

As Peter Hoskin noted last month, it was only 55 per cent last May.  How much of the increase represents an upturn of enthusiasm among activists and how much is a bowing to the inevitable is impossible to say.

Almost 900 Party members responded to the survey.  Their return is tested against a Control Panel which was set up by YouGov.

* 87 votes each.