Our last monthly survey obtained the following answer from party activist respondents – when asked whether a Conservative/UKIP pact should be arranged before the next election.

Yes: 41 per cent.

No: 54 per cent

Don’t Know: 5 per cent.

This month, the result is as follows:

Yes: 33 per cent

No: 58 per cent.

Don’t Know: 9 per cent.

Last May, it was:

Yes: 34 per cent.

No: 33 per cent.

Don’t Know: 33 per cent.

I conclude the following:

  • Last summer, there were plenty of Don’t Knows.  The best part of a year on, they’ve been squeezed down to single figures.  The views of party members have solidified.
  • Support for a pact will move up and down depending on whether UKIP is making waves at the time of survey.  I expect it to rise after the European elections.
  • It’s a statement of the obvious that there won’t be a nationally agreed pact between the two parties in 2015, but it will be interesting to see if backing for one is still in the 30s or above after next autumn’s Party Conference.

Three further points:

  • Toby Young’s local vote-swapping arrangement is still members’ top option, with the same score as last month: 17 per cent.  No movement here.
  • We asked the same question about a pre-election pact with the Liberal Democrats.  Five per cent are for.  92 per cent are against.
  • So there’s far more support for a UKIP pact than a Lib Dem one among Party members.  How long ago it seems since Nick Boles, Peter Lilley, John Major and Jacob-Rees Mogg favoured the Coalition partners fighting the next election together!

Almost 900 Party members responded to the survey.  Their return is tested against a Control Panel which was set up by YouGov.