This morning’s Observer splash warns of a ” ‘worst winter’ in hospitals as A&E crisis grows”. I have been sketching the same prospect for some time. Like a weather forecaster predicting rain, I will be proved right sooner or later.
But whether or not there is an old-fashioned NHS crisis this winter, the paper’s story raises a spectre which is haunting Downing Street – namely, a horror film first six months for David Cameron in 2014, as follows.
I doubt if it will all be anything like as bad as this (though Number 10 is concerned). The economy is recovering. Miliband’s ratings are dire. The poll gap between the two main parties is closing. The best thing the Party can do is to hold its nerve.
And it may – but here’s the rub. The vote distribution alone makes a Conservative majority in 2015 most unlikely: indeed, the problem has been a millstone around the Party’s neck, since 1992 at least, the last year we won a majority.
So even if the nightmare never happens, what’s Cameron’s longer-term plan to get the Party back in the game? The door to boundary change is closed, at least for the time being.
As this site never tires of arguing, his strategy should instead be to push for a rebalancing of power between England and Scotland (once the independence referendum is – crossed fingers – won).
The Liberal Democrats have blocked justice for England in this Parliament. That may change after the results from Scotland in the 2015 election. Downing Street should be putting its thinking cap on.