By Paul Goodman
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At the end of the Daily Mail's report of a YouGov poll today, a spokesman for the pollster is quoted as saying: "When we take all factors into account, including the incumbency "bonus" likely to be enjoyed by Conservative MPs newly elected in 2010, Labour and the Conservatives both need around a 7 per cent lead in order to secure an overall majority in 2015". The comment is a reminder that our series this week on what David Cameron's negotiation red lines is timely.
Respondents to our poll have had their say on where those lines should be drawn. Here is mine. It's important to remember what would happen were the Liberal Democrats – or perhaps another minority party – to step over them and refuse to move. Cameron would have either to back down, or break off the talks. The consequence could be a Conservative minority government…or a Lab/Lib coalition…or even a Labour minority government. There's no way of knowing.
In the event of Cameron leading the largest party after the 2015 election, it may be that the best course will be for the Conservatives to go it alone. But in my view, that is not a decision that can be fixed on now. In such circumstances, a second Coalition could be the best option available to the country and the Party, if the right terms can be agreed. And that means red lines – not, I believe, lots of little dabs on the pavement, but a few clear markings. My top three would be: