By Peter Hoskin
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poll to enflame Conservative concerns about a split vote on the right: tomorrow’s
ComRes survey for the Independent on Sunday has Ukip on 17 per cent, which
happens to equal the highest level of support they’ve recorded with any
Tories are on 28 per cent, with Labour on 37. That means that, by ComRes’s
numbers at least, the gap between the Tories and Labour is only two percentage
points narrower than the gap between Ukip and the Tories. Shudder.
Wells has, as always, done the analysis that matters.
You should read his post in full, although two points stand out from it. First,
the Ukip vote varies wildly by pollster; from around 7 per cent with ICM, to
this 17 per cent with ComRes. But, second, almost every pollster has had that
vote rising over recent months.
there could be more to come. Patrick Hennessy is teasing a
“major ICM poll in SunTel on threat to Cameron's Tories of rise of UKIP”. We
shall update this post with details once they come in.
9.30pm update: The Sunday Telegraph has reported the ICM poll now, although the full figures aren't yet available on the ICM website. Here are the main points from that report:
"A group identified as Conservative-Ukip 'switchers' [those who have yet to decide which of the two parties to support] supports Mr Farage’s party’s position over that taken by the Tories on immigration by 62 per cent to 34 per cent, on state spending by 64 per cent to 28 and on same-sex marriage by 51 per cent to 39.
On leadership, among all voters the Prime Minister is seen as a better party leader than Mr Farage by 33 per cent to 29 per cent but the Ukip leader is the favourite — by 37 per cent to 32 per cent — among the Conservative-Ukip 'switchers'."