By Paul Goodman
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9.30 pm Update: According to the Guardian, 127 Tory MPs supported the bill, 136 opposed it, and 40 MPs either voted both ways (actively abstaining) or did not vote at all. According to Paul Waugh, 40% of payroll vote (47/119) failed to support the Prime Minister, and 70% of backbenchers (129/184) failed to back him.
7.45pm Update: We have our first real rebel estimate – the number of those Conservative MPs who voted against the programme motion. There were 55 votes against it – it's not clear at this stage how many were Tories. 60 blue votes would be a fifth of the Parliamentary Party.
7.30pm Update: Preliminary estimate from Paul Waugh of PoliticsHome – 132 Tory MPs voted with the Prime Minister and 139 against.
I wrote earlier that an important test for David Cameron would be whether he can get the support of 152 Conservative MPs.
My first reaction to the figures above is that, assuming some 30 MPs of other parties voted No, the Tory No vote looks to be on the high side.
Nicholas Watt of the Guardian is tweeting Labour sources as saying that more Conservative MPs have voted against the Prime Minister than with him. Let's see.