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By Paul Goodman

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The figures for the Independent on Sunday are:

Conservative    28% (-3)
Labour             39% (-4)
UKIP                14% (+6)
Lib Dem           9% (-1)
Others             9% (+1)

Andrew Hawkins of Comres is quoted as saying:

"The Conservatives are leaking votes to UKIP – one in five (19%) of the
party’s 2010 voters say that they now intend to vote UKIP. There is good
evidence that many UKIP voters are erstwhile Conservatives on the
rebound: large proportions are negative about David Cameron and George
Osborne on the economy, and about Mr Cameron’s handling of gay marriage."

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We also have an Opinium poll for the Obsever.  The headline figures are:

Conservative 29%
Labour 39%
UKIP 14%
Liberal Democrats 8%

So we have two polls with much the same result.  The evidence to date has suggested that same-sex marriage is losing Conservative activists to UKIP but not Tory voters.  But if future surveys report the same findings that judgement will have to be revised.

Could we be seeing the start of the revenge of "the elderly of the earth"?

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