By Tim Montgomerie
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  • Public opposition to continuing spending cuts
  • Tax rises on ordinary families
  • The growth of UKIP as a vehicle for disillusioned Conservative and Eurosceptic voters
  • A suspicion that the Conservative Party is on the side of the wealthy rather than the ordinary worker
  • Opposition from The Sun, Mail and other newspapers
  • BBC bias
  • Sluggish economic growth
  • Disunity in Tory ranks
  • Problems in the NHS
  • A change of Labour leader, for example to Yvette Cooper
  • The boundary changes are not introduced into law
  • Increasingly unhappy relations with the Liberal Democrats that means they will not not want to form another coalition with the Conservatives in the event of another hung parliament
  • Too much caution from David Cameron in ordering the Tory machine to fight and therefore oust Liberal Democrat MPs
  • Lack of Tory progress in Scotland
  • Lack of Tory progress in northern England
  • The lack of a compelling big Tory message
  • Too much focus on issues like gay marriage and House of Lords reform
  • Broken promises on policies like the third runway at Heathrow
  • David Cameron neglecting traditional Tory beliefs
  • Any donor and sleaze scandals
  • High levels of immigration
  • High energy bills
  • A failure to deliver green policies
  • British soldiers getting involved in more overseas wars
  • Inadequate party funds
  • Declining party membership so there are fewer activists to deliver leaflets

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